An update on prices, the c market hitting historical highs and the challenges and opportunities this brings
By now you’ve probably heard the news of the coffee C-market* hitting an all time high, signalling significant increases in the cost of coffees in the year ahead.
Baltasar Tapasco from the San Lorenzo community along with Jerry from Siruma’s team. Caldas, Colombia.
While there is plenty of uncertainty and we are certainly not denying that this will bring challenges, we would also like to acknowledge some the potential opportunity this market situation creates in balancing the power dynamic and value distribution across the supply chains.
As a quality and values driven business, we exist to bring you outstanding coffees in a way that supports equitable supply chains and benefits producers and drinkers alike.
The hard truth is that most of the global coffee supply chains were built on colonial exploitation, and the remnants of these systems and the resulting inequality are still present today.
Historically coffee producers, small-holder farmers in particular, have been hugely under-resourced and under-valued for their work and in the majority of cases they have been price-takers rather than price-makers. We have always sought to work in ways that challenge this status quo. And it has been a central tenet of our coffee buying strategy to work with export partners (and support projects) that actively strive to make coffee supply chains more equitable, improve value for and give more power to producers. After all, it is these producers on whose work our whole industry is built and depends.
For us, and likeminded businesses, who believe that sustainability in coffee starts with ensuring profitable pricing for growers, the current shift in the market presents an opportunity to set new pricing benchmarks. Ones that can hugely benefit producers on a global scale. And ultimately ensure that we can enjoy coffee in the future.
Now, how does the C price affect the coffees we buy and what will be the effect on our pricing?
Growers from San Lorenzo delivering their coffees for sale at the Co-op’s purchase point in the town centre. Caldas, Colombia.
Broadly speaking, the C price is used globally as a benchmark for coffee price ‘discovery’ - the process by which buyers and sellers agree on a price for coffee. However, it is not the only factor determining the final price buyers pay for a coffee. Depending on local context, harvest schedules and other factors, coffee growers in different countries and regions are affected by the C price in different ways and not all coffee is traded on the C market.
The kind of coffee we buy - differentiated or speciality coffee - is only a small proportion of the global coffee trade. Most growers who produce specialty grade coffee also produce and sell a part (often a significant one) of their harvest as lower grade commercial coffee. As we often say, all coffee has value and contributes to sustaining livelihoods.
What speciality coffee offers is the potential to forge a way for growers to access higher prices through differentials agreed on the basis of quality (broadly consisting of physical quality and the absence of defects combined with cup scores based on flavour). These are set above the internal market prices of producing countries.
Needless to say, a lot of extra work and effort is required to achieve said quality.
By nature, the C market can be volatile, with changing low and high points. For as long as we’ve worked in the industry, the C price have for the most part stayed generally low allowing the differentials paid for quality to be relatively high. And still, many growers have struggled against rising production costs, shortages of labour and unpredictable climate patterns. The current market presents an attractive prospect for growers to gain better rewards for all their work, including the commercial parts of their crop. With the potential to recoup their costs, improve livelihoods and even invest back into their coffee farms.
Even with the C price at its high levels, it is essential to continue paying appropriate quality premiums in order to ensure that speciality coffee remains an attractive value proposition for growers and that the extra work and resources invested in maintaining quality are adequately rewarded.
We are just as passionate about bringing you exceptional quality coffees as we are about maintaining mutually beneficial relationships with our supply partners, many of whom we’ve worked with for several years. Rest assured we have no intention of changing our approach now.
While this will mean some increases to our pricing will be inevitable over the coming months, we are conscious of the effects of this on all our customers and will do what is in our power to mitigate this and make necessary adjustments as gradually as possible. We will keep you posted every step of the way and are always here to answer any questions and concerns you might have.
Sotero Cano at his drying patio near San Antonio Huista in Huehuetenango, Guatemala.
As always, thank you so much for reading and for all your continued support! We appreciate it everyday.
All our very best,
Tereza & the whole Curve Team
Shoutout to our valued export and import partners - Falcon/Siruma, Primavera Coffee, Raw Material, Osito, Indochina - helping us navigate this new landscape and staying true to our shared values of quality, transparency and sustainability.
*C market & C price - an attempted short explainer of a very complex topic:
(Edited by author 17th February)
The coffee C market, now also known as the Coffee C Futures Market, refers to the global commodity market where Arabica coffee is bought and sold, primarily traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Both the physical trade of green Arabica coffee and the trade of coffee futures contracts occurs on the C market. The “C Price” is the current or latest price or value of the C Market at a given time, which is expressed in US cents per pound (lb). The C price has been rising sharply over the past several months and reached an all time high of $435c/lb this week. At the time of writing (12 Feb 2025), the number hovers around $420c/lb compared to $195c/lb at this time last year. (Some commentators point out that the “all time high” value of the current market is relative and not accurate if adjusted for inflation. The previous highest point of the market was in the 1970s.)
Coffees that are allowed to trade on the C Market must meet certain criteria (be unnroasted Arabica coffee, produced in one of twenty predetermined countries, exchanged in one of eight warehouses around the world, and traded in quantities of about 37,500lbs (approximate size of one shipping container). Not all Arabica coffee is traded on the C market and a separate market exists for Robusta. (Sustainable Harvest)
The C price is the most widely used benchmark or reference for Arabica coffee prices around the world. Depending on a particular producing country and their local context, internal markets are affected by the C price in somewhat different ways.
The price of coffee on the C market is influenced by factors like:
Supply and demand: Weather conditions, crop yields, and geopolitical events can impact coffee production, particularly in major coffee-growing regions like Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia.
Currency fluctuations: The value of currencies in producing countries (e.g., the Brazilian real) can influence the price of coffee.
Geopolitical situation: The potential introduction of import tariffs to the US (a major market for many producing countries) can impact the movement of the C-price.
Speculation: Investors and traders can buy or sell futures contracts to profit from price movements, which can lead to further volatility.
The recent increases in the price are largely driven by the expected global deficit in coffee supply versus demand. This is mainly due to significantly reduced harvests in some of the world’s largest producing countries. Notably the adverse effects of climate change and recent drought in Brazil on the country’s production. Coupled with large global buyers purchasing older crop coffee from existing inventories at origin as well as destination leading to there being very little coffee on the market other than what is currently being produced and will be available in the near future.
As we’ve said this is a very complex topic and we appreciate we don’t have all the answers. But we write this with the best of intentions to engage more of us (roasters, cafe owners, baristas, drinkers and anyone adjacent to coffee on the consuming side of things) in the conversation around the value of coffee and equity in the supply chains.
Some further learning sources:
Sustainable Harvest https://www.sustainableharvest.com/blog/c-market-101-what-is-the-c-market
ICE https://www.ice.com/products/15/Coffee-C-Futures
Primavera Coffee https://www.primavera.coffee/prices
Osito https://ositocoffee.com/blogs/blog/historic-highs-in-the-coffee-market-got-us-feeling-low-insights-from-the-past
Map It Forward and their Daily Coffee Pro podcast - https://www.mapitforward.coffee/
Daily Coffee News Magazine https://dailycoffeenews.com/2025/02/07/the-price-of-coffee-is-all-over-the-news-but-what-is-the-price-of-coffee/